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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair traded exclusively horizontally on Wednesday. It traded in the range of 1.2788–1.2801. There were no advantages for either bears or bulls on Wednesday, and neither category of traders attempted to take active action during the day. Thus, the zone of 1.2788–1.2801 cannot currently be considered a source of trading signals. The pair failed to rebound from it or consolidate above it.
The wave situation has been clear recently. The bulls have launched an active offensive, and we have already seen three consecutive upward waves. The last upward wave managed to break through the previous peak from February 22nd, so there are currently no signs of a trend change to "bearish." The sideways movement seems to be over since the pound has risen above all the peaks of the past few months. However, the risk of a resumption of sideways movement remains if bears launch their offensive from current levels. The last downward wave is too weak compared to the previous upward wave. The pair needs to decline at least to the level of 1.2584 to show the first sign of a trend change to "bearish." Alternatively, the new upward wave should not break the peak on March 8th.
On Wednesday, the GDP volume for January was announced in the UK. The British economy grew by 0.2%, as traders expected. Industrial production decreased by 0.2% in volume, which was below market expectations. However, the first report did not help the pound resume its growth, and the second report did not provide sufficient grounds for bears to launch an offensive. There were no significant events in America yesterday. Today, we expect several reports from the US, but trader activity is currently extremely low, so I do not expect strong exchange rate fluctuations.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair consolidated above the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2745), which allows us to count on further growth towards the level of 1.3044. The pound has risen very strongly over the past few weeks, practically without informational support. The strength of the bulls may be waning. There are no emerging divergences observed in any of the indicators today. A rebound of quotes from the level of 1.2745 may increase the pair's chances of continuing to rise, but a consolidation below this level will work in favor of the US dollar and improve the chances of bears.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The mood of the "non-commercial" trader category has become more "bullish" over the past reporting week. The number of long contracts in speculators' hands increased by 10,309 units, while the number of short contracts decreased by 1,718 units. The overall sentiment of large players remains "bullish" and continues to strengthen, although I do not see any specific reasons for this. There is more than a twofold gap between the number of long and short contracts: 102 thousand versus 44 thousand.
In my opinion, the prospects for a decline in the pound remain excellent. I believe that over time, bulls will start to get rid of their buy positions as all possible factors for buying the British pound have already been worked out. However, bears continue to demonstrate their weakness. I also want to note that the total number of long and short contracts has been coinciding for several months, indicating market equilibrium.
News calendar for the US and UK:
US - Producer Price Index (12:30 UTC).
US - Change in Retail Sales Volume (12:30 UTC).
US - Change in Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC).
On Thursday, the economic events calendar contains only three interesting but not the most important entries. The impact of the information background on market sentiment today may be weak.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trader advice:
Sales of the pound today can be considered when closing below the level of 1.2745 on the 4-hour chart with targets in the range of 1.2705–1.2715 and the level of 1.2620. Purchases were possible on a rebound on the 4-hour chart from the level of 1.2745 to a target of 1.2876.
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